Survey Says: Web Video Watchers Aren’t Pirates. But They May Be Ready to Cut the Cable Cord
by Peter Kafka
Posted on June 9, 2009 at 3:36 PM PT
When I talk to people about Web video, I usually end up chatting with people who are in one of two camps. Either they’re tech-centric early adopters, who believe that networks are dinosaurs and that the masses are ready to ditch their cable TV subscriptions for Hulu and the like; or they’re old media realpolitik-sters, who think most people want nothing more than to come home, plop down on the couch and hit the remote. And that anything else is just marginal hype.
The truth has to be somewhere in between, right?
Yep, says Bernstein Research analyst Jeffrey Lindsay, who has rolled out a new study on the demographics of online video watchers, based on a survey his shop conducted in March. Lindsay concludes his study by announcing that Hulu, the joint venture between News Corp. (NWS) entertainment unit Fox, GE (GE) unit NBC Universal and soon, Disney (DIS) unit ABC, is more of a threat to Big Media (or at least to the cable guys) than Google (GOOG)) online video monster YouTube.
Not sure about that, but I do appreciate some of the data that Lindsay has unearthed, some of which reaffirms my own biases, and some of which challenges them.
For instance: More than half of the country is already watching television or movies via a Web connection, and nearly half of those people are oldsters over 40 (click to enlarge).
But very few online video watchers are pirating the stuff they watch. I would have thought, based on the ascent of sites like Megavideo, that piracy was much more prevalent:
Here’s the one I found most interesting–a third of online video watchers say they could see themselves ditching TV altogether in favor of the Web. That’s a third of all Web video watchers, mind you, so that’s maybe 15 percent of the population. But if that number is even close to accurate, that is indeed a real problem for the cable industry and the rest of the media ecosystem that depends on it.
The counter to that last point: Given the choice, people still prefer to watch TV on TV, and they view Web video as a separate option that’s less good.
Comments
The reason that pirates don’t watch Hulu is because as great as Hulu is, it’s still a symbol of old media cluelessness. Availability is a huge problem on hulu. Executives limiting availability is kind of a joke when you can go watch the show illegally. It only hurts people like me who don’t steal, and who get laughed at by their coworkers and friends for not stealing. Also torrents come in higher quality than Hulu. I don’t watch Hulu either, I buy shows on itunes, better availability. It’s all about availability and quality. Improve those, and the pirates will lower their sales.
Posted by Bjorn Tipling at June 10th, 2009 at 12:22 amsails.* haha
Posted by Bjorn Tipling at June 10th, 2009 at 12:23 amWhen Web video gets to the “point the remote and click” stage, it will replace cable. Not before.
Posted by Bill Webb at June 10th, 2009 at 6:23 amThese days, people aren’t paying their cable operators for more content, they are paying for a relatively easy-to use interface (i.e., the EPG) and what-you-want-when-you-want (i.e., DVR and VOD). Cable is a lot more internet-like than the Hulus of the world want to believe.
Posted by alan miles at June 10th, 2009 at 10:10 am