So bear this in mind when reviewing the newest comScore (SCOR) search numbers, which show Microsoft (MSFT) continuing to make modest search share gains. Bing is now up nearly a full point since May, when Microsoft introduced the new “decision engine.”

If you’re in glass-half-empty mode, you can complain that the blitz of publicity (free and paid) for Bing should have moved the needle farther. But if you’re a half-full type, you can argue that there is a very large swath of people–even those with a passing interest in the Internet–who have no idea Microsoft has a new search engine. Which means there is a very large swath of potential converts.**

Here are the July data, courtesy of JP Morgan’s Imran Khan. Note that both Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) saw share drop by 0.03 percent (click chart to enlarge):

And if you’ve already had your fill of the Bing ad blitz, brace yourself. Barclays analyst Doug Anmuth predicts another deluge in a few months “as we move closer to the holiday season, specifically highlighting the Cashback program and other differentiated features.”

Here’s the Bing spot that left my fellow moviegoer bemused (note that the ad has its own overlay ad at the 10-second mark for…Bing):

*Kafka At the Movies minireview: Way better than “Punchline.” And if you like your Adam Sandler angry (which I do) and your Seth Rogen slimmer (meh), you’ll be happy. But at two-hours-plus, way too long.

**Alternate take: You might worry that Microsoft’s decision to describe Bing as a “decision engine” may be confusing potential converts.

Midway through next year, Google’s $900 million, 3.5-year search advertising deal with News Corp. and MySpace expires. What are the odds that Rupert Murdoch’s social network gets anything close to that with a new contract?

Very, very low.

When News Corp. (NWS) first inked the Google deal in 2006, the pact was a huge shot in the arm for the company because it guaranteed that Murdoch would earn back the $600 million he’d spent on the site–and that was just for a small slice of its ad inventory.

But in retrospect, it’s clear that the agreement was a one-time only affair. If MySpace does get another Google deal next year, it will be at much lower terms. (News Corp. is the owner of Dow Jones, which owns this Web site.)

Barclays analyst Douglas Anmuth, who spent the weekend poking through Google’s 10-K filing, finds yet more evidence that Google (GOOG) has no intention of paying through the nose again. In 2007, he notes, Google spent $1.7 billion on guaranteed deals like the MySpace arrangement. Last year, that number dropped to $1 billion. (Click chart to enlarge.)

Anmuth, who also notes that Google has recently walked away from a distribution deal with Dell (DELL) and ceded a Verzion (VZ) deal to Microsoft (MSFT), concludes that “Google no longer sees the need to win distribution at any cost, and we also think it is internally re-evaluating its relationship with MySpace.”

Want even more data points? OK: Two years ago, Google let Microsoft win the Facebook bake-off, allowing Redmond to plunk down $240 million for an overvalued stake in the social network. And last year, Google Co-Founder Sergey Brin used the company’s earnings call to sound off about its disappointment with advertising on social networks.

Does this sound like a company itching to re-up?

This isn’t necessarily a disaster, by the way. Wall Street long ago stopped factoring in Google dollars in MySpace’s results (the unit posted flat revenues last quarter, which isn’t bad considering the rest of the online ad market). And Microsoft will certainly be interested in acquiring additional search inventory any way it can–ask the folks at Yahoo (YHOO) about that.

But without Google to help bid up the price, even Redmond won’t have to overpay for MySpace. Which means that if MySpace wants to keep bragging about its impressive growth, it’s going to have generate much more of that growth itself.

UPDATE: Here’s a response from MySpace:

“MySpace and Google have a long-standing, productive partnership on a number of levels including search advertising, our support of the Android operating system, implementation of Google Gears, and the co-development of OpenSocial. It’s extremely premature to speculate on what either company may do in 18 months.”

Just like everyone else who racked up lots of loans when the banks were giving cash with almost no strings attached, big media have a debt hangover. Clear Channel, whose private equity owners took on $17 billion in debt to acquire it last year, is getting hammered by investors who think it won’t be able to pay that money back.

Next up for scrutiny: CBS, which has a big debt payment due next year and not that much cash on hand.

The Wall Street Journal outlines Clear Channel’s situation: The company’s debt is trading at pennies on the dollar because investors worry that its radio and billboard businesses won’t generate enough cash to satisfy certain loan covenants, which would then jack up the rates on the existing debt. The company tapped a credit line on Monday, but that’s not making anyone feel more comfortable:

Drawing down the remaining $1.6 billion in its $2 billion credit facility injects more cash into the struggling company’s balance sheet, but the move has analysts wondering whether Clear Channel may be choosing to access those funds now for fear it won’t be able to later. If the company trips certain financial covenants–conditions a company must meet to satisfy lenders–it may not be able to tap that credit, analysts say…

If the debt ratio worsens rapidly over the next few quarters, eventually hitting 9.5 or more, debt holders have the right to ask for higher interest payments or other fees from the company. They also could demand their funds back immediately, potentially sending the company into bankruptcy proceedings.”

No one is mentioning the B word in connection with CBS (CBS). But Barclays analyst Scott Shiffman, in a note published last week, does make ominous sounds (title of his report: “CBS–The Slippery Slope Has Begun”).

The gist: CBS has a $1.6 billion bond that matures next year, and about $500 million cash on hand. In order to make that payment, the broadcaster has several unappealing choices, including cutting its dividend or drawing down a revolver loan.

Any of those options, Shiffman argues, in conjunction with a weakened TV business, could prompt the newly vigilant credit rating agencies to downgrade CBS’s debt below investment grade–i.e., junk. S&P may be the first to make a call, perhaps by the end of the month, he says.

No comment from CBS. But the company does report earnings next week; expect to hear lots about this from Les Moonves and company during the Feb. 18 conference call.

By the way: I’d like to show you the CBS News interview of the month–not Katie Couric’s “60 Minutes” interview with Hudson hero pilot Chesley Sullenberger, but her pre-Grammy chat with Lil Wayne. Which included Couric’s instant classic line “You also, reportedly, like…like your weed.”

Alas, CBS has yanked all the usable versions off of YouTube and isn’t showing them anywhere on its vaunted CBS Audience Network. What gives Quincy?

Fortunately, Gawker Media’s Jezebel taped the thing, so you can head over here to watch it, as some 19,000 other people have. Well worth a couple minutes.

UPDATE: CBS Interactive head Quincy Smith graciously points out that his network does indeed have a short clip of Lil Wayne interview, and says that licensing issues prevent the network from letting us see the whole thing. But still–surely, there was some way to include the weed line in the excerpt! That’s the best part!

Here’s what they’ve got:

Watch CBS Videos Online

We’ve already heard worrisome predictions about online ad sales at Yahoo (YHOO) and Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL. And those are going to be rosy compared to the people who sell offline. Bad harbinger: Brutal numbers from magazine publisher Meredith Corp (MDP).

The Iowa-based company reported that its print ad revenue was down 20 percent for the last quarter, and that the handful TV stations it owns saw their sales drop about five percent. Meredith says magazine ads are down 15 percent so far for the current quarter, which sounds comparatively rosy (down 15 percent is the new up!).

But the company says TV ads have fallen off a cliff and are plummeting out of view: Sales for the current quarter are down 40 percent, led by auto ads, which have basically disappeared–down a staggering 70 percent.

If those numbers are anything close to indicative of the rest of the market, you’re going to see the ripple effects throughout the media world. Today, for instance, Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente used the Meredith results to help explain why he was cutting his estimates for News Corp. (NWS), owner of Dow Jones and of this Web site.

And things can get much worse, DiClemente notes. The national market for TV ads has stayed relatively strong, but that’s in large part because advertisers locked in their buys last spring. But advertisers still have a window to bail out of those commitments in the near future. And even if they don’t, it’s hard to imagine they’ll re-up at the same levels when the networks pitch them this spring.

Barclays now says U.S. advertising will decrease 10 percent next year, and will rebound to one percent growth in 2010. In October, the bank’s analysts were projecting a five percent drop for 2009. It figures there will still be some Internet ad growth, pegging spending at $28.3 billion. That would be a 6.1 percent increase, and would be mostly driven by search ads. Per usual, that’s good news for Google (GOOG), and lousy news for most everyone else who is trying to build a business based on selling Web display ads.

Like seeing unpleasant forecasts? Read on for a sector-by-sector roll call of gloom:

Broadcast Television Networks: We are lowering our Broadcast Television Network advertising revenue estimates for 2009 and 2010 to down 10.0% and up 3.0%, respectively. Our previous estimate was for down 8.0% in 2009. We expect the national broadcast advertising marketplace will hold up better than local.

TV Stations: We have lowered our broadcast TV local and national spot estimates for 2009 and 2010 and now estimate a decline of 15.5% in 2009 and a decline of 1.1% in 2010. Previously, we were anticipating a decline of 8.9% in 2009.

Cable Networks: We are lowering our estimates for 2009 and 2010 Cable Networks advertising revenue to down 3.0% and up 5.0%, respectively, given the deteriorating consumer economy. Previously, we estimated revenue growth of 1.8% for 2009.

Newspapers: We are cutting our 2009 and 2010 newspaper advertising revenue forecast to down 17.0% and down 7.5%, respectively, vs. our prior 2009 estimate as of one month ago down 14.0% and down 12.0% as of our ad forecast report in October. Specifically, in 2009, we estimate retail down 11.0%, national down 17.6%, and classified down 27.9% (help wanted down 44.7%, auto down 37.5%, and real estate down 28.8%). In 2010, we estimate retail down 5.0%, national down 7.0%, and classified down 13.5% (help wanted down 15.0%, auto down 12.5%, and real estate down 12.5%).

Radio: We estimate radio advertising revenue to decrease 13.0% overall in 2009, below our prior estimate of a 7.4% decline, and now expect down 1.7% in 2010.

Yellow Pages: We have lowered our expectations for 2009 to down 13.0% vs. our prior estimate of down 9.0%, and now expect down 7.0% in 2010.

Outdoor: We are lowering our estimates for 2009 and 2010 Outdoor advertising growth to declines of 6.0% and 4.4%, respectively. Previously, we estimated flat revenue growth in 2009.

Direct Mail: Given mounting cyclical pressures, we are expecting direct mail to decline 8.5% in 2009 (vs. our prior down 6.0% estimate) but increase 2.5% in 2010.

Magazines: We estimate magazine advertising revenue to decrease 15.0% in 2009 (vs. our prior down 12.5% estimate) and decline a further 5.0% in 2010.”

Here’s a taste:

AOL programming sites hit all-time high traffic numbers and marked the 21st month of consecutive year-over-year growth for unique visitors, according to the October 2008 comScore Media Metrix report. Unique visitors to AOL’s programming content sites grew 7% year-over-year to 54.3 million in October, and page views more than doubled, up 101% year-over-year to 4.2 billion. Engagement (total minutes) grew 51% year-over-year in October. Total minutes reached an all-time high on AOL.com, growing 27% year-over-year. Additionally, AOL.com page views grew 27%, and unique visitors and total visitors were up 9%, year-over-year, as the site further opened up to third-party content, services and features….”

Etc. 
In the old days, like last spring, this kind of AOL boasting would make competitors at Yahoo (YHOO) quiver with anger, because the Yahoo guys thought that the AOL guys were using legal but sneaky tricks to inflate traffic. Now it’s hard to imagine anyone at Yahoo getting too amped about this stuff, mostly because the people who were most passionate have left.

In any case, the real issue for AOL isn’t traffic. It’s how much that traffic is worth. And those numbers are not so good.

Barclay’s Doug Anmuth, who is covering AOL parent company Time Warner (TWX), sends out his own note this morning, which points out that while AOL’s page views increased 14 percent during the last quarter, overall ad revenue dropped six percent, and display ads at AOL’s own sites dropped 15.4 percent.

His conclusion? “Monetization of non-guaranteed inventory and challenges around Platform A continue to be an issue.” Translation: Doesn’t matter how much traffic you have, if you can’t sell it.

And those problems aren’t going away. Anmuth projects that AOL ad revenue will drop another 4.4 percent in 2009. That’s a projection some might find optimistic.

[Image Credit: Laffy4k]

All true. But a lousy economy is a lousy economy, and even Google (GOOG) isn’t impervious. So says Barclay analyst Douglas Anmuth, who has just cut his estimates for the search giant. He says revenue for the last quarter of the year will be flat compared to the same period in 2007; he had previously predicted growth of 3.4 percent. Next year, revenue will grow 13.2 percent, Anmuth says, down from his early forecast of 18.5 percent.

Anmuth’s reasoning is straightforward: Advertisers do, in fact, like search ads. But consumers are spending less online, which makes their clicks worth less, which is pulling down prices at Google.

That dovetails with new data from online monitor comScore (SCOR), which says that online shopping has “fallen off a cliff” and will be lucky to grow between six percent and 10 percent this quarter. MediaPost:

Year-to-date, comScore says, online sales have grown 10% to $158 billion–compared to 17% last year, 20% in 2006, and 22% in 2005. Just this year, it has plunged from 19% in the first quarter, 13% in the second, and 9% in the third. Excluding travel, the drop is even steeper, falling to just 5% in September.”

Anmuth’s note knocked down Google shares to a three-year low of $311.75; the stock rebounded to $318.78 by the end of the day.