Here’s your daily dose of goodish news about the Web ad business, courtesy (again) of Mark Mahaney, who says display ads are perking up. Or at least some of them are.
More upbeat–but not too ecstatic–chatter about the state of the Internet advertising market this morning from Wall Street: Barclays Capital analyst Douglas Anmuth is raising his estimates for Google, citing “improving macro conditions [and] a stronger ad market.” Other online advertising bulls: Investors, who have been pushing up Google stock for months, and CEO Eric Schmidt, who has declared that the worst is over.
There are very good odds that there are going to be some very big deals happening in the media world in the next year or so. So this move makes a lot of sense: Former Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons is joining up with Providence Equity Partners, the private equity firm with a hankering for media investments.
Waiting for the economy to come roaring back? So is Google. The search giant had a decent quarter, but not one that’s going to blow away Wall Street or convince anyone that the economy is roaring back. But it’s an okay performance for a media company in a recession.
Is the ad market really starting to rebound? Or is the (muted, cautious) happy talk we we’re hearing this spring just happy talk? Time to take a peek at Google’s quarterly earnings this afternoon, which might give us some insight.
As per Google’s last report card, Wall Street is expecting the company’s revenue to decline from the previous quarter–unthinkable for Google in prior years, but now no longer a shock. But Wall Street will be looking for both numerical and qualitative hints that things are getting better, or at least have bottomed out.
An endless ad barrage may be enough to get you to sample Bing. But it can’t ensure you’ll like the results once you try it.
That’s the conclusion Citigroup’s Mark Mahaney reached after taking Microsoft’s new search engine for a spin and comparing it to Google’s and Yahoo’s. The result: Google still delivers better results most of the time. In 71 percent of searches, Google either supplied the most relevant answer or tied with other engines. Bing did that 46 percent of the time.
Even as the rest of the retail world stumbled in the past year, Amazon kept cruising and increasing market share. So if a cratering economy can’t hurt the e-commerce giant, what could? Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney throws out a suggestion: Movies, books and music–the same stuff that helped Amazon get the lead it enjoys today.
I’m pecking this out from the bowels of the New World Stage, where Day Two of the Twitter-centric 140 Character Conference is meandering along. But the most interesting Twitter-related news is coming from outside the conference: Data from comScore showing that Twitter-related search has become both measurable and meaningful.
Well, measurable, at least.
The Palm Pre debuts this week. Next week, we should hear about a big update for Apple’s iPhone. And by the end of the summer we’ll have new phones running Android platform. So who’s going to emerge as the winner? Easy, says Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney: It’s Google. But Mahaney isn’t talking about Google’s smartphone platform. He’s talking about Google’s core search business, which he thinks is finally about to see significant lift from mobile users.
More fuel for the “things may not be getting worse, and may even be getting a little bit better” meme that I’ve been detecting (or perhaps promulgating ) recently: Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney notes that the Internet stocks he covers are up an average of 28 percent so far this year while the tech-heavy NASDAQ is only up seven percent and the broader S&P is down two percent. If this keeps up, we might have an M&A market again. Wouldn’t that be interesting?
Let’s get this out of the way in advance: When Google delivers its first-quarter report card today, it will likely mark the first time the search giant sees revenue decline from one quarter to the next. So that’s a big deal. But it has also been expected for some time now. So what should you be looking for this afternoon?
Media giant Zenith Optimedia says the ad market is in worse shape than it had previously suspected. This is what Zenith Optimedia, along with just about every other ad forecaster, has been saying every three months or so for the past year. So it’s hard to get worked up about this stuff. The upside is also old news: Online advertising is doing better than traditional ads.
If flat is the new up, then a four percent growth year for Google will be something to celebrate in 2009. But first, a really unpleasant first quarter.
The New York Times’s top editor says the paper is considering trying to charge people for a digital version again–and notes that some people are already buying one via Amazon’s e-book reader. Not enough to be meaningful, but it does prove at that least some folks will pay for stuff they can get for free.
Amazon is set to unveil Kindle 2.0 next Monday at a New York press event. But how many of the original e-book readers has it sold already? Don’t ask Jeff Bezos and company. But Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney figures Amazon sold 500,000 devices last year and that the Kindle will be a billion-dollar business by next year.
Peter Kafka has been covering media and technology since 1997, when he joined the staff of Forbes magazine. Most recently, he has been the managing editor of the tech and media Web site, Silicon Alley Insider.
Here is a statement of my ethics and coverage policies. It is more than most of you want to know, but, in the age of suspicion of the media, I am laying it all out.
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