But Spotify has yet to make a key expansion: To the U.S., where the big music labels worry that consumers will love everything about the site except paying for it. That’s bad, since Spotify is supposed to work best as a subscription service.

Most Americans have never heard of Symbian, but it remains the biggest player in the global smartphone market (as long as you use a broad definition of smartphone). But it’s telling that Spotify first made a point of making its service compatible with Apple’s iPhone (AAPL) and Google’s Android (GOOG) handsets first.

In any event, Spotify is only available via mobile to paying subscribers, who shell out around $16 a month in the UK (and less in some other countries). They key question for the music business is how many of those there are.

Spotify won’t release any statistics, but one number that I’ve heard from people close to the company is 100,000, which works out to be less than 2 percent of the company’s overall user base (free users can only listen to the service on their PCs, and have to endure a small smattering of ads). But US music industry executives worry that the number may be even lower than that.

The two sides continue to chat, and conventional wisdom is that the service will indeed get to the US, one day. But at one point Spotify was talking about coming to America in 2009, and that looks just about impossible at this point. Now CEO Daniel EK is talking about the first half of 2010.

Warner (WMG) is handing those duties over to Outrigger Media, a New York-based rep firm that specializes in Web media (Outrigger’s preferred description: “Internet video sales and marketing firm”), the companies announced today; oddly, Warner’s release goes on and on without even once mentioning Google (GOOG) or YouTube. Go figure.

I’ll admit that I hadn’t heard of Outrigger before this morning, but I had heard of its CEO, Mike Henry, an ad sales veteran who was previously running ad sales for Veoh, one of the many video sites that aimed to become the next YouTube in the past few years. Turns out, Henry is still running ad sales for Veoh–the company has outsourced its ad sales business to Outrigger.

Warner’s strategy is different from the one rival Universal Music is taking with Vevo, the “Hulu for music videos” joint venture it launched with Sony (SNE), with help from YouTube. Vevo is creating its own in-house salesforce, to be led by Nokia (NOK) and and Viacom (VIA) vet David Kohl.

I can understand Warner’s reluctance to build a salesforce of its own–if you really want to do this stuff right, you’re looking at 20 or 30 people–but it seems that long term, if the labels have a future, it’s going to be primarily as a sales and marketing force, and you’d want to make a bet on that now. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Vevo

Kohl’s job is a key one at the venture, whose premise is that the music industry can do a better job of selling its video inventory than sites like Google’s (GOOG) YouTube. Vevo is a joint venture owned (for now) by Sony (SNE) and Vivendi’s Universal Music Group; YouTube will help power the site and share in some of its revenue.

In theory, there could be a lot of dollars to go around. When Vevo opens its doors later this year, it is expected to generate some 450 million video streams a month. In theory, the fact that a single company controls the way the videos are displayed and distributed will make those streams more attractive to advertisers.

But there are plenty of skeptics who think the site will flounder, in large part because the music industry has never figured out how to run a successful consumer business and because media companies have a terrible track record when it comes to joint ventures. In Vevo’s favor: They said the same thing about Hulu, and that venture has been a success, at least operationally.

Kohl will run a six-person sales team he intends to expand, people familiar with Vevo’s strategy tell me. Until now, Vevo head Rio Caraeff has been overseeing sales himself–and learning on the job, since he didn’t have any sales experience of his own. Vevo now employs about 45 people.

At Nokia, Kohl ran the company’s interactive ad group; he has also put in time at Viacom’s (VIA) MTV Networks, Vivendi Universal and Comedy Central.

If that’s the kind of thing that makes you happy, then you would love today’s call, in which the exact same thing happened again. Twice! From my transcription/paraphrase this afternoon:

Q: What about getting into the low priced/netbook category?

Apple COO Tim Cook: “Our goal is not to build the most computers, it’s to build the best. Whatever price point we can build the best in, we will play there. At this point, we don’t see a way to build a great product at that price point, $399, $499.” We think many customers buying those find themselves “disenchanted” after buying cheapo/netbooks.

Q: Do you think there is an emerging market for a “truly mobile device” with a larger screen, a market big enough that you may want to participate?

Cook: “Never want to discount anything in the future,” and never want to answer specifically your question about new products. [Duh.] But boy, do we think netbooks are lousy, and we think customers agree.

Two things here:

1. Apple has a history of disparaging products and markets right before they unveil their own. So it’s not unreasonable for analysts to keep asking about the prospects for a supercheap Mac laptop. But Apple really is emphatic about its distaste for these machines.
2. Apple is not ruling some sort of device that’s more expensive than a netbook and less expensive than a $999 MacBook…and may have a big touchscreen…and is bigger than an iPhone, etc. Something, perhaps, like an $800 iTablet. We’ll see.

EARLIER:

Joining call late; analysis of Q3 results here.

Reading from prepared statement:

• Eight billion songs purchased and downloaded from iTunes store.
• Slight uptick at Mac retail stores. 50 percent of Macs sold at stores to customers who didn’t own Macs before. 258 stores. 27 store remodels.
• Gross-margin improvement: Component cost increase not as high as expected; weaker U.S. dollar helped.
• Cash pile: Will be invested in short-term investments. First week of Q4, made $500 million payment to Toshiba for future supply of NAND flash memory.

Q&A:

• Please talk about your relationship with wireless carriers (i.e., when will you dump AT&T (T) for Verizon (VZ). Tim Cook: “I think that most of the carriers we’re doing business with are thrilled with lower churn…and, of course, their customers are demanding the iPhone.” Do you see opportunity beyond the iPhone, like data plans for laptops with AT&T? “Nothing to be announced today.” How’s your relationship with AT&T? “I think it’s an excellent relationship and we’re very happy with it.”
• Discussion of education and professional market for Mac laptops/PCs–both affected by economy more than consumer market, i.e., schools and corporations are less likely to spring for shiny new Macs than Joe Sixpack.
• How is the $99 iPhone performing? As we made changes–launch of 3Gs and lower-priced iPhones–we saw acceleration of unit sales. But won’t break down mix. Supply of phones has been “constrained” and demand is robust. Opportunity for enterprise sale? Big opportunity. Doing well with small business, and with big corporations and agencies where employees can purchase for themselves.
• Guidance details? No change in thinking regarding guidance offerings. We usually see an increase in Mac units from June to September, but we think the sequential increase will be less than in previous years since we’ve refreshed our lines a while back. Also, education sales are “under pressure from budget shortfalls.” Same thing with the iPod: We think we’ll see a decline for regular players but an increase for the iPod touch. Seasonality makes projections a little funky this time around given timing of product launches.
• Channel inventory for iPhone lower is than we would like; there are 1.83 million phones in inventory.
• Given the $999 MacBook and price cuts for the Mac line, is the MacBook more or less elastic than anticipated? As we expected, some people are now buying up, because they can get the Macbook Pro for $1,199, down from $1,899. “We’re not thinking fundamentally different about the Mac business than we were before.” If we can build great Macs at lower prices, we will, but we won’t put the Mac brand on products that aren’t up to our standards.
• Update on Snow Leopard? Why such a low price point? Snow Leopard is priced aggressively so that all our users can upgrade to it, and we expect that they will. What commodity prices are you worried about, what should we think of the Toshiba prebuy? Are others coming? The market for DRAM and large-size LCDs has “shifted to constrained environment” and prices have moved accordingly. The NAND supply is getting better. We have a long-term supply agreement with Toshiba. We view flash as key component because we use it in so many products, and we’re a big consumer on a worldwide basis. We’re always open to similar deals. We’ve done one with LG on LCDs. We may do others, but we’re not working on one now.
• Please talk more about consumer demand for lower-priced laptops. No details forthcoming. But on macro level: Once price changes, people are upsold from $999 unit to $1,199 unit. [We just heard that.] Prior to change, we had seen people leaning toward the $999 product. What about pricing on iPhone side? Sounds like $99 3G iPhone helped drive traffic to the $199 3GS iPhone. Was that the plan? We’re focused on total iPhone units. So we’re psyched about 5.2M iPhones sold. Also, take note that the 3GS is in short supply and not available in all territories. Also, early in cycle, you have more upgraders, and upgraders are more likely to get higher priced phones. Still, too early to tell about product mix.
• Competitors are now finally coming out with rival app stores–Pre (barely), BlackBerry, etc.). What are you up to in answering back? Well, we just launched OS 3.0. That’s pretty great. It has an Installed base of 45 million (iPhones and iPod touch). We have a gazillion apps. According to the latest numbers from Nokia (NOK) and RIM (RIMM), they have a couple thousand each; Android has maybe 5,000. “We feel extremely good about our competitive position and continue to believe that we’re light years ahead of other people.”
• What about getting into the low-priced/netbook category? Tim Cook: “Our goal is not to build the most computers, it’s to build the best. Whatever price point we can build the best in, we will play there. At this point, we don’t see a way to build a great product at that price point, $399, $499.” We think many customers buying those find themselves “disenchanted” after buying cheapo/netbooks.
• Is the carrier network strong enough to handle all the apps and the more robust apps you’re coming out with every day? Non-answer. Do you think you guys will make investments on the side to take pressure of carrier-capacity issues? No plans. When we entered business, we looked at it, decided what we could do well was deliver the handset. I think there are other people that have more skills in the network area, and I think we have a lot of those partners.
• Back to netbooks and things like netbooks, but better, like the iTablet: Do you think there is an emerging market for a “truly mobile device” with a larger screen, a market big enough that you may want to participate? Cook: “Never want to discount anything in the future,” and never want to answer specifically your question about new products. [Duh.] But, boy, do we think netbooks are lousy and we think customers agree.
• Any info on iPhone sales split between new buyers and upgrades? Nope. Okay, how about the app store? It looks like prices are in a “race to the bottom”; there are lots of 99 cent apps. Are you worried about that? And can you help customers distinguish between good ones and “garbage”? Cook: “We realize there’s further opportunity for improvement” regarding promoting quality apps, etc. Regarding price: It’s up to the developers. As the installed base grows, it makes more sense to have lower prices, but that’s up to the developers.

Call finished.

Big music ignored digital music for a long time. But over the last few years, that’s changed. Now the industry is hoping that fast-growing digital revenue can help it overcome slumping CD revenue.

That has yet to happen. And now digital revenue–to date, that has chiefly meant sales at Apple’s iTunes (AAPL)–seems to be slowing down. Today’s example: Warner Music Group (WMG), which reported its quarterly numbers today.

Those numbers are fine, by the way. Or at least by econalypse standards: Warner posted sales of $858 million and profits of four cents per share, both of which were better than Wall Street’s expectations.

But while digital revenue was up 28 percent, to $167 million, that’s a slower growth rate than the previous quarter. And the one before that. The breakdown:

• Q4 digital growth rate: 28 percent
• Q3: 39 percent
• Q2: 48 percent
• Q1: 41 percent

Digital sales still accelerated overall during the last 12 months; they grew 39 percent and accounted for 18 percent of Warner’s overall sales. A year earlier, those numbers were 30 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

But those quarterly numbers don’t augur well, and there’s a good chance they will get worse in the next quarter, because digital sales are now tethered very closely to sales of Apple’s hardware.

Get a new iPod (or iPhone), and you’re likely to spend a few dollars at iTunes for some new songs. But if demand for Apple products slackens a bit–perhaps because the company doesn’t have a compelling new iPod, or perhaps because everyone who wants an iPod has one, or perhaps because the economy is terrible–then the same thing will happen to digital growth.

Which explains why the industry’s new dream involves generating digital music sales independently of Apple. Through, say, Amazon’s (AMZN) digital music store. Or with the mobile carriers and handset makers like Nokia (NOK). Good idea. But it’s not happening in the near future.

That seemed plausible a few years ago, when consumers embraced the ringtone trend and shelled out $2.50 to buy a couple seconds of music for their phones. But trend is the operative word here–ringtone sales have been flattening for some time. And hopes that consumers would use their phones to buy music over the air via iTunes-like stores haven’t panned out, either.

New plan: Tether music sales directly to the sale of mobile phones, via bundling plans like Nokia’s “Comes With Music.” That program, which just launched in the U.K. last month, makes an interesting proposition: Buy a $229 Nokia handset, and you can download as much music as you want from the big labels–Warner Music Group (WMG); Sony (SNE); Vivendi’s Universal Music Group and EMI Music Group–for a year.

If that works, it’s a double win for the business: It gets consumers to actually pay for digital music and it gets them to pay via an outlet that’s not Apple’s iTunes, which is a big deal for an industry trying to reduce its dependence on Steve Jobs and company.

But it only works if people are actually buying new phones, period. And Nokia (NOK) is now saying that looks a whole lot less likely for the foreseeable future.