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	<title>MediaMemo &#187; NY Post</title>
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	<description>by Peter Kafka</description>
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		<title>The Ad Recession Is Two Years Old. How Long Will It&#8211;And Layoffs&#8211;Last?</title>
		<link>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081229/the-ad-recession-is-two-years-old-how-long-will-it-and-layoffs-last/</link>
		<comments>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081229/the-ad-recession-is-two-years-old-how-long-will-it-and-layoffs-last/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:55:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[MediaMemo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bob Coen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conde Nast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forbes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interpublic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keith Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[layoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NY Post]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timer Warner]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=2515</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here's your obligatory scary stat for the day: The ad recession that's responsible for so many layoffs has been in effect for two years, by one count, and will extend for at least another year in the U.S. That would mark the first three-year decline in ad spending since the Great Depression. And no matter how you count, we're in for more layoff pain ahead.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/crater.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-44" title="crater" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/10/crater.jpg" alt="" width="246" height="250" /></a>Here&#8217;s your obligatory scary stat for the day: The ad recession that&#8217;s responsible for so many layoffs has been in effect for two years, by one count, and will extend for at least another year in the U.S. That would mark the first three-year decline in ad spending since the Great Depression.</p>
<p>So says <a href="http://adage.com/article?article_id=133462">Ad Age</a>, which rooted through the projections <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081208/want-more-ad-gloom-interpublic-obliges-us-ads-down-45-next-year/">made earlier this month</a> by Interpublic (IPG) research czar Bob Coen. That&#8217;s a great/grim nugget, because it puts what happened over the past few months&#8211;and what will happen in the next few months&#8211;in context. So does this table from Coen&#8217;s report (click to enlarge):</p>
<p><a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/12/ad-growth.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-2517" title="ad-growth" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/12/ad-growth.png" alt="" width="350" height="315" /></a></p>
<p>If you&#8217;d like to put even more of a pallor on your week, consider that Coen, like his colleagues at other ad conglomerates, is an optimist compared to prognosticators who work outside the business. Fitch Ratings, for instance, predicts a U.S. ad spending drop of six to nine percent next year.</p>
<p>Which is why the media layoffs that we saw crest at the end of this year are destined to continue in 2009.</p>
<p>Some of them will be at media outlets that still haven&#8217;t made the cuts that their peers have gone through, but will soon: My former employers at Forbes, for instance, have yet to consolidate the company&#8217;s magazine and Web staff, but when they do in January, they&#8217;ll be laying people off. <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081205/next-up-for-media-layoffs-abc/">We&#8217;re also likely to see cuts at Disney&#8217;s (DIS) ABC unit</a> in the near future.</p>
<p>Just as worrisome: The notion that companies that have already made one round of cuts, <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081209/holiday-cheer-from-time-inc-layoffs-nearly-done/">like Time Warner</a> (TWX), will be back for more once they get a better grip on how ad sales are really performing.</p>
<p>Over the weekend, for instance, the New York Post&#8217;s Keith Kelly reported that <a href="http://www.nypost.com/seven/12262008/business/it_could_get_cond__233__nasty_145978.htm">first quarter revenue at Condé Nast could be down 30 percent</a>, prompting another round of contraction at that publisher. A year ago that would have been laughable. Now it sounds sadly plausible.</p>
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