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	<title>MediaMemo &#187; operating income</title>
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		<title>Google Makes AOL's Turnaround Task Even Harder</title>
		<link>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091113/google-makes-aols-turnaround-task-even-harder/</link>
		<comments>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091113/google-makes-aols-turnaround-task-even-harder/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:43:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MediaMemo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Kafka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[search]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[algorithm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AOL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bonus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leverage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prospectus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randy Falco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ron Grant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[salary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sales force]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[search deal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[search query volume]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Securities and Exchange Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[share]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shareholders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spinoff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[subscriber base]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[subscription]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Armstrong]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Time Warner]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=12954</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Little by little, AOL is offering investors more and more details about what the company will look like after it spins off from Time Warner. But the more AOL discloses, the less attractive the company looks. The newest problem: AOL's steady flow of Google money is going away.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/tim_armstrong_lg.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-5186" title="tim_armstrong_lg" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/03/tim_armstrong_lg-300x195.jpg" alt="tim_armstrong_lg" width="250" height="162" /></a></p>
<p>Little by little, AOL is offering investors more and more details about what the company will look like after it spins off from Time Warner (TWX).</p>
<p>The problem: The more AOL discloses, the less attractive the company looks.</p>
<p>The most recent nuggets come from a preliminary prospectus Time Warner filed with the <a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1468516/000119312509231054/dex991.htm">Securities and Exchange Commission</a> yesterday. Some, but not all, of this has broken out in previous filings or earnings announcements. In any case, it helps to see it all in one place.</p>
<p>The big picture: AOL&#8217;s subscription service, which accounts for the &#8220;vast majority&#8221; of the company&#8217;s operating income, is withering away. But advertising revenue, which was supposed to replace that money, has been declining for nearly two years (see tables below; click to enlarge):</p>
<p><a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/11/aol-revs-2004.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12955" title="aol revs 2004" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/11/aol-revs-2004.png" alt="aol revs 2004" width="350" height="63" /></a></p>
<p>And here&#8217;s a closer look at the ad business and its recent performance:</p>
<p><a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/11/aol-ad-revenue.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12957" title="aol ad revenue" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/11/aol-ad-revenue.png" alt="aol ad revenue" width="350" height="31" /></a></p>
<p>The good news for AOL is that some of this is the result of self-inflicted wounds, and it&#8217;s possible to heal some of them. The company&#8217;s previous regime seemed to go out of its way to mismanage and dismantle the sales force, for example, and if new CEO Tim Armstrong can rebuild that team, he can make a bit of headway.</p>
<p>The flip side is that some of AOL&#8217;s woes may be well beyond Armstrong&#8217;s control. Money from a Google (GOOG) search deal, which provided a third of AOL&#8217;s $2.1 billion in ad revenue last year&#8211;and had been increasing up until this year&#8211;is now dropping off, too.</p>
<p>Google dollars fell by $42 million in the most recent quarter, representing more than half the $75 million drop in ad dollars from its AOL Media unit. And Google income fell by $90 million in the last nine months, representing about 40 percent of $197 million decline in that period.</p>
<p>AOL says some of the Google decline stems from its declining subscriber base, which brought down search query volume. The rest is due to lower revenue per search query&#8211;that is, Google has changed its algorithm in way that ends up punishing AOL. But Armstrong can&#8217;t do a whole lot about either of these variables.</p>
<p>He <em>can</em> try extracting more money from Google, whose search deal expires at the end of next year, or from Microsoft (MSFT), which is trying to gain share any way it can.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, <a href="http://kara.allthingsd.com/20090923/aol-readies-board-picks-for-spin-off-while-holding-off-search-suitors-plus-boomtown-director-picks/">Armstrong turned down a new deal from Google</a> and now says he&#8217;ll deal with search after he gets other things in place. But the longer he waits, the less leverage he may have.</p>
<p>AOL shareholders will be paying Armstrong well to figure this out, though. His three-year deal pays him a base of $1 million a year, plus annual cash bonuses of up to $4 million. In addition, he&#8217;s getting $20 million worth of stock grants to make up for Google shares he left on the table when he resigned from his old employer. And he&#8217;ll get stock options worth as much as 1.5 percent of the company once the spinoff is complete.</p>
<p>That said, AOL will also be paying former AOL CEO Randy Falco, who got tossed out in March. Falco will continue to pull down a $1 million salary through 2010&#8211;and he&#8217;ll get $7.5 million in bonuses through then as well. Former AOL COO Ron Grant, meanwhile, will earn $750,000 a year, plus another $3.3 million in bonuses.</p>
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		<title>Time Warner Gives Wall Street a Pleasant Surprise, but Has Bad News for Time Inc. Employees</title>
		<link>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091104/time-warner-gives-wall-street-a-pleasant-surprise-but-has-bad-news-for-time-inc-employees/</link>
		<comments>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091104/time-warner-gives-wall-street-a-pleasant-surprise-but-has-bad-news-for-time-inc-employees/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:09:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MediaMemo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Kafka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[econalypse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AOL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bottom line]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cable networks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consensus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cost savings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DVD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[employees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[film]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[guidance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Bewkes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[layoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[movie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[one-time charges]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pretax direct transaction costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[restructuring charges]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[share]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[subscriber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[third quarter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Time Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Time Warner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Viacom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warner Bros.]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=12726</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, Viacom told Wall Street that its third quarter had been better than most analysts expected. Today Time Warner delivered a similar report: Revenue was on track, but cost savings improved the bottom line. That won't help hundreds of Time Inc. employees who face job cuts this quarter. Meanwhile, the company can't ditch AOL soon enough: It has already spent $100 million prepping it for a spinoff this year.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/11/bewkes.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-625" title="bewkes" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/11/bewkes.jpg" alt="bewkes" width="200" height="208" /></a>Yesterday, <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091103/a-slow-motion-recovery-viacom-says-things-arent-getting-worse/">Viacom</a> told Wall Street that its third quarter had been better than most analysts expected. Today Time Warner (TWX) delivered a similar report. Jeff Bewkes and company reported Q3 revenue of $7.12 billion, which was more or less on track with the consensus estimate of $7.08 billion. But cost savings improved the bottom line: After adjusting for one-time charges, Time Warner earned 61 cents per share, much better than the 53 cents Wall Street had been looking for.</p>
<p>That won&#8217;t help employees at Time Warner&#8217;s Time Inc. publishing unit: The company confirmed that it will make big cuts this quarter and spend up to $100 million on restructuring charges. This is different from the $100 million in <em>cuts</em> that had been previously reported, but it will still mean hundreds of layoffs at the publisher.</p>
<p>Time Warner also boosted its guidance for the remainder of the year and confirmed once again that it wants to spin off AOL before the end of the year. As well it should: The company said it has already spent a staggering $24 million on the spinoff so far this year, which includes $9 million in &#8220;pretax direct transaction costs (e.g., legal and professional fees).&#8221; It has spent another $83 million in restructuring charges at that unit in 2009.</p>
<p>As usual, Time Warner said ad sales have been lousy, but that its cable networks and film divisions had done okay. The breakdown:</p>
<ul>
<li>Cable networks: Revenue up five percent, because subscriber fees were up nine percent. Ad revenue was down one percent.</li>
<li>Warner Bros. movie studio: Revenue down four percent, because of slumping DVD sales.</li>
<li>Time Inc.: Revenue down 18 percent; advertising down 22 percent. Adjusted operating income down 42 percent. Hence the coming cuts.</li>
<li>AOL: Revenue down 23 percent. Subscription revenue, which will continue to shrink, was down another 29 percent, and ad revenue, which is supposed to improve one day, was down 18 percent.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Amazon Delivers: Revenue, Earnings in Line, Bezos MIA for Conference Call</title>
		<link>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090723/amazon-delivers-revenue-earnings-in-line/</link>
		<comments>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090723/amazon-delivers-revenue-earnings-in-line/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2009 20:19:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mobile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Kafka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Amazon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[books]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consensus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DVD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings call]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreign exchange]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henry Blodget]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Bezos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kindle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mary Meeker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[movie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MP3 store]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[net sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[one-time charge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pro forma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Q2]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[second quarter]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Zappos]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=9655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amazon's Q2 was just what Wall Street was expecting--which in Wall Street's perverse logic means that Wall Street will be disappointed. Amazon delivered net sales of $4.65 billion and earnings of 32 cents per share; consensus called for $4.67 billion and 32 cents. Jeff Bezos might have been able to allay investors' worries, but he was a no-show for the conference call.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/07/bezos_shoe.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-9663 alignright" title="bezos_shoe" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/07/bezos_shoe.jpg" alt="bezos_shoe" width="200" height="155" /></a><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Amazoncom-Announces-Second-bw-1057691024.html?x=0&amp;.v=1">Amazon&#8217;s Q2</a> was just what Wall Street was expecting&#8211;which in Wall Street&#8217;s perverse logic means that Wall Street will be disappointed. Amazon delivered net sales of $4.65 billion and earnings of 32 cents per share; consensus called for $4.67 billion and 32 cents.</p>
<p>Operating income could be a problem, though: Factoring out foreign exchange swings and a one-time charge, Amazon delivered pro forma operating income of $240 million, and Wall Street was looking for something like $260 million.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-amazon-q2-earnings-live-analysis-2009-7">Henry Blodget points out</a>, Amazon&#8217;s North America media sales (books, CDs, DVDs, etc.) have flat-lined in the last year. This is what that looks like in graph form (click to enlarge):</p>
<p><a rel="lightbox" href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/07/amzn-media-sales.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-9660" title="amzn-media-sales" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/07/amzn-media-sales.png" alt="amzn-media-sales" width="350" height="232" /></a></p>
<p>Now listening to the stultifying earnings call, which does not feature Jeff Bezos. Assuming there&#8217;ll be questions about the <a href="http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090722/earths-biggest-shoe-store/">Zappos deal</a>; I also assume that Amazon (AMZN) won&#8217;t have much to say about it beyond the announcement it put out yesterday. But I&#8217;ll add in any highlights below.</p>
<p>Q. Mary Meeker wants to know if Amazon is seeing a slowdown in media sales due to the transition to digital. She&#8217;s also interested in the possibility that mobile could be a big deal.</p>
<p>A. Media is slow, but it doesn&#8217;t seem to be related to digital. Still very early, and Amazon is seeing good unit growth there (Kindle, MP3 store, movie service). Not much to say about mobile.</p>
<p>Q. Any plans to take Kindle overseas?</p>
<p>A. Nonanswer.</p>
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		<title>Another Down Quarter for Disney, but Cable's OK</title>
		<link>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090505/another-down-quarter-for-disney-but-cables-ok/</link>
		<comments>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090505/another-down-quarter-for-disney-but-cables-ok/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 20:14:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Kafka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[entertainment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[television]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABC.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ad market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bob Iger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cable]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cannibilization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CBS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Club Penguin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demographic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disney Channel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[expectations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FCC licenses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[free]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[impairment charges]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iTunes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[network TV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News Corp.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News Corp. CBS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[online]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Radio]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Webcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[write-down]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=6972</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A bad quarter for Disney, but it could have been worse--at least Wall Street was expecting it. After factoring out one-time charges and write-offs, Bob Iger and company earned 43 cents a share on revenues of $8.1 billion. Wall Street had been looking for 40 cents and $8.15 billion, respectively. The bright spot for the entertainment conglomerate is the same one you see at every media giant these days: Disney's cable business.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-770" title="mickey-and-friend1" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/20/files//2008/11/mickey-and-friend1-300x209.jpg" alt="mickey-and-friend1" width="250" height="174" />A bad quarter for Disney, but it could have been worse&#8211;at least Wall Street was expecting it.</p>
<p>After factoring out one-time charges and write-offs, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Walt-Disney-Company-bw-15139537.html?.v=1">Bob Iger and company earned 43 cents a share on revenue of $8.1 billion.</a> Wall Street had been looking for 40 cents and $8.15 billion, respectively.</p>
<p>Iger: &#8220;We had a difficult second quarter due to the weak economy and other factors.&#8221;</p>
<p>The bright spot for the entertainment conglomerate is the same one you see at every media giant these days: Disney&#8217;s cable business. Revenue at ESPN and the Disney Channel was up four percent and operating income was up five percent. That&#8217;s because those powerhouse channels have locked in payments from cable operators that show up regardless of the economy&#8217;s state. </p>
<p>And that&#8217;s why you won&#8217;t see (much) programming from those channels on <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090501/why-it-took-more-than-four-months-and-millions-of-dollars-to-get-lost-on-hulu/">Hulu</a>&#8211;there&#8217;s no way Iger is going to rile up the cable operators who pay for that programming by running it for free online.</p>
<p>Disney&#8217;s interactive group, which includes videogames and sites like Club Penguin, but not revenue from ABC.com and sales from Apple&#8217;s (AAPL) iTunes store, saw revenue decline 17 percent, and operating income drop two percent.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the breakdown by segment (click to enlarge):<br />
<img rel="lightbox" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2009/05/df5dd7e7c1b64289a484d958ab3c20c23ashx.png" alt="df5dd7e7c1b64289a484d958ab3c20c23ashx" title="df5dd7e7c1b64289a484d958ab3c20c23ashx" width="350" height="288" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6976" /></p>
<p>Write-down watch: Disney took $203 million in &#8220;impairment charges&#8221;&#8211;accountant-speak for &#8220;the stuff we bought back then isn&#8217;t worth much now.&#8221; That includes &#8220;$108 million related to radio FCC licenses and $46 million related to an investment in an Indian media company.&#8221;</p>
<p>This follows on the heels of a <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090203/mickeys-crummy-quarter-disney-misses-q1-earnings-revenue/">lousy February quarter</a> in which the company didn&#8217;t hit expectations.</p>
<p>Disney (DIS) is the first of several big media companies to report this week. News Corp. (NWS) weighs in tomorrow, followed by CBS (CBS) on Thursday.</p>
<p>The Disney earnings call is starting now. I&#8217;ll listen in and update as warranted.</p>
<p>Disney CFO Tom Staggs on ad market, economy: &#8220;While we believe the pace of decline has generally stabilized, we believe ad buyers and consumers remain cautious.&#8221;</p>
<p>During Q&#038;A, Iger has a long monologue about online philosophy, Hulu, etc., but my Webcast cut him off before he was finished. Don&#8217;t know whether to blame Disney or Time Warner Cable (TWC) for that one&#8230;.</p>
<p>In any event, here&#8217;s my paraphrase of what I could get down, with a smattering of quotes:</p>
<p>&#8220;We found that as we move product to the Web&#8230;at least [with regard to] piracy that we&#8217;re aware of, there&#8217;s been a stabilization&#8230;.We feel that if we don&#8217;t put it online&#8230;it will be demanded by consumers, and they&#8217;ll find ways.&#8221;</p>
<p>Research on cannibalization and piracy in general is inconclusive and some research conflicts with other research we&#8217;ve seen. &#8220;Some of this is instinct, by the way. It&#8217;s not all based on research.&#8221;</p>
<p>We feel media consumption is moving to the Web and that media consumption may be expanding. We think we&#8217;re better being online than not being online. We realize that Web monetization doesn&#8217;t exist yet, at least not at TV-like levels, but we believe that eventually it will.</p>
<p>A lot of the consumption that we&#8217;re seeing is incremental because it&#8217;s a different demographic. The average age of consumers watching ABC.com and itunes is younger than the average age of those watching network TV. The Hulu demographic is generally younger than prime-time network demographics. So we don&#8217;t believe it&#8217;s cannibalization.</p>
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		<title>Did AOL Ad Dollars Drop 18 Percent Last Quarter?</title>
		<link>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090107/did-aol-ad-dollars-drop-18-last-quarter/</link>
		<comments>http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090107/did-aol-ad-dollars-drop-18-last-quarter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2009 17:13:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter Kafka</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MediaMemo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Kafka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2008]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AOL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Imran Khan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Morgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Bewkes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Time Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Time Warner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[write-down]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/?p=2878</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Along with a $25 billion write-down, Time Warner announced that operating income would be lower than it had predicted for 2008, in part because of weakness at AOL and Time Inc. J.P. Morgan analyst Imran Khan thinks that means AOL ad revenue fell off a cliff at the end of the 2008.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/11/bewkes.jpg"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-625" title="bewkes" src="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/files/2008/11/bewkes.jpg" alt="" width="200" height="208" /></a>Along with a <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20090107/ghosts-of-aol-lehman-visit-time-warner-in-25-billion-writedown/">$25 billion write-down</a>, Time Warner announced that operating income would be lower than it had predicted for 2008, in part because of weakness at AOL and Time Inc.</p>
<p>J.P. Morgan&#8217;s Imran Khan does some quick math and concludes that what Time Warner (TWX) is really saying is that ad revenue at AOL dropped 18 percent in the last quarter (see below for math). That&#8217;s awful, but believable: AOL ad revenue dropped six percent in the previous quarter, and <a href="http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081105/online-meltdown-update-aol-ads-down-6-in-third-quarter/">as I noted last fall</a>, those results only included a couple weeks of flat-out economic collapse.</p>
<p>This obviously doesn&#8217;t augur well for the rest of the Internet ad business, either. But only the most die-hard optimist thought that the Web was going to survive this thing unscathed anyway.</p>
<p>No comment from Time Warner on Khan&#8217;s math. We&#8217;ll see actual numbers Feb. 4, when CEO Jeff Bewkes announces the company&#8217;s year-end earnings results.</p>
<p>Khan&#8217;s estimate, from his note:</p>
<p>&#8220;We estimate that advertising revenue shortfall at AOL is at least $64M implying an 18.4% Y/Y advertising revenue decline. We make the following assumptions to arrive at this estimate: (1) we assume that half of the 1% shortfall in Y/Y Adjusted OIBDA growth that TWX press release attributes to both Publishing and AOL is due to online ad revenue shortfall; and (2) we assume a 100% incremental margin.&#8221;</p>
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