At a TVWeek conference in Manhattan, Bewkes repeated arguments he has made in the past: Chiefly, that big media mergers have a lousy track record and that he couldn’t see how Comcast (CMCSA) could unlock any value by buying a majority stake in NBC Universal from GE (GE).

“Somebody has finally noticed that these things don’t work out so well,” he said, adding “We love to see our competitors taking risks.”

But just to hammer that point home, Bewkes compared the proposed deal to the one his company made nine years ago when it embarked on an ill-fated merger with AOL. That deal (made when Bewkes was running Time Warner’s HBO unit)  “basically made no sense” at the time, he said.

The main talking point in favor of that transaction–that connecting Time Warner’s content with AOL’s Internet distribution would create synergy–was “nonsensical,” he said. But “these kind of arguments, you’ll hear some of them this week, in the other merger that we’ve been talking about,” Bewkes said.

Clear enough?

Wall Street, by the way, remains unimpressed with the proposed deal as well: Comcast shares are down about 10 percent since word got out.

In other reiteration news, Bewkes also said, again, that he doesn’t plan on selling his Time Inc. publishing unit. Though he left himself a tiny window of wiggling room by noting that “no public company can ever say that it wouldn’t consider restructuring some part, whether it’s Warner, HBO, whatever.”

But Bewkes insisted that Time Inc.’s best-known magazine brands, including “Time, People, Sports Illustrated, InStyle,” are holding their own as print products and that the challenge will be turning them into online successes.

“We have basically a healthy business in terms of our relationship with readers. These brands mean something and they’re evolving…,” he said. “If you can’t take the leading titles that people have known for decades, and use the new world to make them relevant, really, shame on us.”

Crawford’s thinking: After Time Warner ditches AOL, which is scheduled for a spinoff later this year, the company will ditch its magazine business as well. That will leave it with a portfolio made up only of a movie studio and cable networks, and a big cash pile to play with.

Time Warner won’t comment, but I’m sure the company has heard Crawford make this prediction before. His Capital Research Global Investors owns more than eight percent of Time Warner shares, which means he gets plenty of access to Bewkes and his lieutenants.

But here’s the thing: The body language from Time Warner executives in recent months makes me think they intend to keep at least part of their magazine business in the family. More than body language, actually: “Time Warner without People? I can’t imagine it,” one well-placed Time Warner official told me recently.

That said, I won’t be surprised if the publisher employs fewer people, producing fewer magazines in the future.

Time Warner officials have repeatedly said that Time Inc. has too many titles: The magazine unit publishes 23 magazines in the U.S. How many can you name? And last year’s mass layoffs, while unprecedented for the publisher, were still fairly modest compared to other publishers’ cuts. The six percent reduction left Time Inc. with some 9,400 people on the payroll.

But executives at the publisher love to stress, off the record, that its flagship titles–Time, People and Sports Illustrated–are each on track to generate millions of dollars of profit this year, even though ad pages and revenue are down. And while Time Inc. certainly hasn’t figured out its digital business yet, at least some of its print properties could and should do well on the Web, as People.com is already doing.

There are certainly assets that Bewkes and company could dispose of fairly easily. For instance, its U.K.-based IPC Media unit, which handles many of the 90-plus titles it publishes outside the U.S., is frequently brought up as a sale candidate. But I’d be surprised if he got rid of Time Inc. and its iconic brands altogether.

For the record, here’s how Time Inc. performed in the first half of the year. The company has already said it expects similar numbers for the remainder of 2009 (click table below to enlarge).

Those numbers come from the Publishers Information Bureau and they probably understate the case: The revenue numbers are based on publishers’ rate cards, which are usually a polite fiction to begin with. So when you look a the title-by-title numbers provided by the Magazine Publishers of America, assume that things are worse than they seem.

So that can’t be good for the two publications that logged the biggest drops I could see at first glance: U.S News and World Report, down 68.8 percent, and Condé Nast’s Portfolio, down 60.9 percent. But those titles have had struggles for quite a while. Not so stalwarts like People, which has been a reliable moneymaker for Time Warner’s (TWX) Time Inc. But that title saw a 13.7 percent drop, too.

What’s coming up? A few publishers have told me that their Q2 doesn’t look substantially worse, which qualifies as good news these days. What doesn’t: Some publishers also tell me that some of their Q2 ad pages reflect ad budgets that were committed many months ago, timed to product launches and other events that can’t be scrapped. So it’s hard to tell if we’re even level yet.

A better indicator: how many more publishers go back for another round of layoffs, as Forbes did last month.

While it’s true that Time Warner’s (TWX) magazine unit is embattled, there are bright spots in the portfolio. Take People.com: The gossip magazine has always been one of Time’s strongest performers (good luck trying to find a discounted subscription). Now its companion Web site is, too.

The site boasts 8.6 million unique monthly visitors, per comScore (SCOR), up 36 percent in the last year, and generates a staggering 700 million page views per month–per Omniture (OMTR). Meanwhile, once-hot sites like TMZ.com (another Time Warner property) have tailed off.

Much of the credit for that goes to Mark Golin, the awesomely sharp and frumpy editor best known as the man behind Maxim magazine’s rise, way back in the late 1990s. He’s successfully broadened the site beyond just Britney/Paris/Lindsay news by adding features like a game channel, a shopping channel and the like.

One of the most successful expansions came via acquisition: When People.com bought Celebrity Baby Blog back in May, it was generating 6.9 million page views per month. Now it’s doing 30 million, Time execs say. And before my fellow journobloggers dismiss the work that the people at Celebrity Baby Blog do, ask yourself this: Did you know that Ashlee Simpson has named her kid Bronx Mowgli? Aren’t you glad you know now?

In any case, all those page views are translating into actual dollars–not digital pennies, as NBC’s Jeff Zucker would say. Time Inc. says People.com is now one of its 10 most profitable titles–that’s out of all of the company’s 174 properties, on or offline.

The company won’t attach numbers to that claim, of course. But given that Time Inc. generated $162 million in operating profit during a very lousy third quarter, you can get some sense of the property’s success. Now Time just needs many more just like it.

The New York Post’s Keith Kelly has already reported that layoffs are in motion at People, Time and Sports Illustrated over the next few days; I am told that cuts are also coming to Fortune magazine today or tomorrow. Here’s a Sports Illustrated employee’s take on the situation there:

We are all expecting the hatchet Thursday or Friday. Morale is dismal. One colleague of mine, uber golf writer John Garrity, told several of us that he’s taking the package but will continue on for a while as a special contributor. We expect two or three photo editors to go, and two or three members of the Sport’s Illustrated Latino staff (the Spanish language SI publication, which posted a net profit of approx. one million in ’07 and broke even in ’08, was inexplicably shuttered). Also photographers are rumored to be being cut to half time service and members of our copy desk have been asked to take up to a 30% pay reduction for which they will work fewer hours. Charlie Leerhsen, one of our two executive editors, told a few staff members that he was going to be leaving.”

In other layoff/shutdown news:

• I am told that Forbes (where I worked for many years), is in the final stages of planning cuts as it prepares to merge the editorial operations of its magazine and Web site units. Last month the company began integrating its business groups and laid off about three dozen people in the process.
• GE’s (GE) NBC Universal has laid off at least 30 people in its sales group, reports AdAge. The cuts are part of a previously reported mandate from NBC CEO Jeff Zucker to cut three percent of the company’s budget. The Post says another 80 people could be fired at CNBC.
• Barry Diller’s IAC (IACI) is breaking up its programming group, which includes ventures like College Humor, 236.com and Tina Brown’s DailyBeast.com. Some but not all of the sites will be closed down or sold off. PaidContent has details.

As always, I value reader input: You can reach me directly at peter@allthingsd.com. If you want to be completely anonymous, you can use the blind tip box here.

Last month, the Time Warner (TWX) magazine unit announced a sweeping reorg that is expected to cost about 600 employees their jobs. But the details have yet to be announced.

That started changing today, but my understanding is that the cuts won’t be accomplished with one swing of the ax, which is unfortunate for everyone involved.

Today’s memos will at least add some clarity, and I’ll republish them here as I get them, with your help. As always, I keep all correspondence anonymous: peter@allthingsd.com.

So far I’ve collected memos from four of the five titles, but am still looking for details on Money. Time, SI, People and Fortune are looking for 90 volunteers to leave their jobs.

Bear in mind that these memos only deal with editorial jobs. I’m assuming there are also significant cuts planned on the business side. Details as I get them.

[UPDATE: Some cuts on the business side, too. The company has laid off 92 people from its consumer sales and marketing group.]

Fortune managing editor Andy Serwer doesn’t spell out the number of volunteers he’s looking for in his note, but I’m told he informed staff today that he needs about a dozen positions eliminated:

Unfortunately, we will need to reduce staff at Fortune in the writer-editor, writer-reporter, designer, editorial assistant and copy coordinator Guild categories, and we are asking for a number of volunteers to leave the company with a severance package. If you are interested in confidentially exploring this option, please contact Dawn Dunlop in HR at [redacted] or Edith Fried at [redacted] by Friday, November 21, 2008. If we do not have enough volunteers, we will need to begin a process of involuntary layoffs. For your reference, the Company’s severance formula is in the Guild contract and is also posted on Time Traveler.”

Sports Illustrated needs 40 bodies gone within two weeks, says managing editor Terry McDonnell:

For the reasons outlined in Ann Moore’s reorganization announcement of 10/28/08, the Sports Illustrated Group will reduce the size of its staff across all properties. At the magazine, we will reduce staff in the following guild-covered categories:

• copy editors
• photographers
• designers
• photo equipment technicians
• picture catalogers
• picture researchers
• reporter-researchers
• research assistants
• writer-editors
• writer-reporters

A number of jobs not covered by the guild will also be eliminated at the magazine and across the group.

Approximately 40 guild and non-guild volunteers are needed over the next two weeks to avoid involuntary job eliminations. If the number of volunteers falls short by Monday, December 1, involuntary layoffs will begin.”

People wants to drop 18 editorial employees (via Gawker):

As part of a broad Time Inc. work force reduction, I regret to announce that People magazine will be making cuts in its editorial staff. We are looking for the volunteers to accept severance packages in the following Guild-covered job classifications:

• up to 6 reporter-researchers
• up to 4 Los Angeles-based staff members from among staff correspondents and writer-editors
• up to 4 New York-based staff members from among staff correspondents, writer-editors and writer-reporters
• up to 3 copy editors
• 1 research librarian

We are also looking for up to two Guild-covered volunteers each in the Art Department and photo department, and one in the News Bureau.

In addition to this call for Guild volunteers, non-Guild employees may inquire about the possibility of volunteering for a severance package.

I urge all those interested to contact People’s human resources representatives [redacted] for details regarding their particular package.

In addition to the above cuts, we are looking for savings from full-time staffers interested in working a four-day week (Tuesdays off) for commensurate salary. This call is voluntary, and final decisions will be made based on business needs and management discretion.

The call for volunteers expires on Dec 1. If necessary, after that we will follow the Guild contract procedure for conducting involuntary layoffs in Guild categories.

If you have any questions, please see me or your department heads.”

Time is looking for 20 volunteers (via Newsweek.com editor–and former Time employee–Mark Coatney):

Due to the corporate restructuring, we need to reduce approximately 20 staffers at TIME across the following guild-covered categories: edit traffic assistant, writer-editor, staff correspondent, writer-reporter, reporter-researcher, designer, research cataloger and research librarian.

Volunteers in these positions or any others can raise their hands any time in the next two weeks. If we do not have enough volunteers by Monday, November 24th, we will begin a process of involuntary layoffs.”

Apologies to Time Inc. employees waiting to learn their fate: There’s no new information to offer you here.

But thanks to a source familiar with Time Inc. boss Ann Moore’s meeting today with the senior staff at her “Style and Entertainment” Group, we can give you a very good sense of what she’s telling employees at Time Warner’s (TWX) magazine unit.

In short, it’s a pep talk version–sort of–of the reorg memo she distributed last week: Suck it up, buckle down and get to work. We’re restructuring the company because the economy stinks, but we’re still a magazine company, and don’t lose sight of that.

And while we doubt that any of Ann’s employees would take her words lightly, the folks at the Style group need to pay even closer attention–following the reorg, she now oversees the unit directly.

Again, this is not a verbatim transcript of Moore’s remarks. If anyone wants to offer more details, correct errors, etc, please contact me: peter@allthingsd.com.

Some insiders don’t see the need for change. They look outside, but outsiders don’t know how to succeed. We need to be insider/outsiders. The rules have changed, and we need to find who within our org can work as a team. Is this re-org forever? We hope not. It’s a two-year plan. Employees need to act like an equity company that bought Time Inc.

Lastly, Moore added, we will all get through this.