For the past year or so, News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch has been a consistent voice of pessimism, and he forecast an ugly economy before his big-media peers did.

And now he’s more upbeat than his fellow media CEOs. Here’s his opening salvo:

“I am not an economist…but it is increasingly clear that the worst is over….As you know, I have been uncharacteristically pessimistic in recent calls, though I would argue that it was a well-founded concern. But there are emerging signs in some of our businesses that the days of precipitous decline are done and that revenues are beginning to look healthier.”

Not only is this a turnaround, it’s a turnaround from just a month ago, when Murdoch professed to be full of bearish sentiment at the cable industry’s annual show.

So what changed? Advertisers have started spending money again, he says: “Everybody was in shock by the economy and all business was falling of a cliff in the last 3 months of last year. Including me.” And that meant ads disappeared in January, February and March. But now they’re coming back. “It’s not back to the old levels. Don’t get me wrong, he says. “But at the very least we seem to have hit the floor.”

There is some nuance to this: When asked by an analyst why that optimism has prompted him to reinvest in his company, via stock buyback, Murdoch hedged: “I want a little more evidence that the worst is over…there is a real feeling that we’ve hit bottom and there is something turning, but this is early days yet.”

As usual, Murdoch’s call was well worth listening to, as he’s the most unbuttoned of the media moguls when it comes to earnings calls. Plenty of good stuff here on the Kindle, the state of the newspaper business, his plans to charge for more online content, etc.

EARLIER:
Thanks to a helpful News Corp. (NWS) official for deciphering the company’s earnings for me. The media conglomerate, which owns this Web site via its Dow Jones unit, posted earnings of 16 cents (after factoring out one-time gains and charges) on revenue of $7.4 billion. Wall Street had been looking for 16 cents and $7.7 billion, respectively. The company’s revenue number is down 16 percent from a year ago.

CEO Rupert Murdoch isn’t crowing: “Our third-quarter results directly reflect the continuing weakness of the global economic climate.”

News Corp. doesn’t offer much transparency regarding MySpace, which just recently swapped out its leadership team, or the Fox Interactive Media group MySpace belongs to. But it does say that its “other segment” which includes FIM/MySpace, lost $89 million in the last quarter, down $82 million from a year ago.

“The decline in FIM operating results was driven by lower advertising revenues combined with increased costs associated with the MySpace music joint venture and the launch of new features.”

Expect more detail in the earnings call, which begins at 4:30 Eastern time.

Here’s the sector-by-sector breakdown (click chart to enlarge):

News Corp.’s numbers come a day after Disney’s (DIS). not-as-bad-as-we-feared report. CBS (CBS) reports tomorrow.

Call starting shortly: I’ll be covering live.

Call starting. This will be COO Peter Chernin’s last go-round.

CFO Dave DeVoe starts:
Paper and broadcast TV down, cable doing OK (just like every other media conglomerate).

Some segment notes: Studios are up in part because of “Wolverine,” “Slumdog,” etc. Also because they’re making more TV shows (recall there was a strike a year ago).

TV stations down 28 percent (if you strike out Superbowl revenue from last year). That’s about par for local TV these days (i.e., down 20 percent is the new flat!).

Cable: “Very strong growth.” Operating income up 30 percent, revenue up 11 percent. Affliate fees up 24 percent. Ad revenue down six percent (not bad). Fox News Channel had record operating profit. New affiliate deals in effect with everyone except for Charter and Cox, and those should be set next year.

Newspaper business: Operating income at $7 million, down from $200 million(!) last year. Dow Jones: Advertising down 33 percent at The Wall Street Journal (gulp).

FIM (MySpace): $187 million, down 11 percent. Online ads down 16 percent. That’s a big collapse from last quarter.

Murdoch: “I’m not an economist…but it is increasingly clear the worst is over.” This is meaningful given that Murdoch was an early pessimist, at least by media mogul standards. “We’re beginning to see a number of bright spots that give us encouragement.”

Movie business: “It is booming right now.” “Could not be happier” with “Wolverine” opening.

Lots of praise for Fox News’s “stunning achievement” in closing the gap on NBCU’s USA.

Broadcast ad volume and pricing are holding up well.

Strong growth at WSJ.com, as measured by internal metrics. Ad revenue for site will grow 20 percent year to year in the fourth quarter. Will soon be making pay people “handsomely” for iPhone app.

I believe I heard a challenge to the Kindle, but not sure. Following up with News Corp. PR. Yup: “We will not be sending our content rights to the fine people who created the Kindle. “

“Too many content creators have been passive in the face of obvious violations of property rights….Our content is extremely valuable and the violators recognize that value.”

Re MySpace: Confident in new team that will “spur new growth and new profitability. Profitability, I must say, that has completely escaped our competitors.”

Praise for Hulu. “There are lessons for Hulu’s success in other parts of our company.”

Now praise for Chernin: “I’ve watched him grow from young executive to my trusted deputy”…built strong management team. I’ll miss him, etc.

Chernin: Praising investor community, a bit tongue in cheek. “Also a great privilege to work at News Corp…and a deep, deep privilege to work for” Murdoch.

Q&A:
Murdoch: Cable advertising down six percent this Q but will be up two percent for the year. General purpose cable nets all up:

Q: If worst is over, why not buy back stock?
Murdoch: “I want a little more evidence that the worst is over…there is a real feeling that we’ve hit bottom and there is something turning, but this is early days yet.”

Q: You have $6 billion in cash. What do you want to do with that? Would you spin out any part of business, like newspapers?
Murdoch: We believe that we are a very strong interrelated company and that all of our divisions help each other. And yeah, we have $6 billion. Except that in the first three or four months of next year we do have $2 billion worth of repayment. So let’s deal with that first.

Q: How does local TV business look? And how is home video looking?
Murdoch: A month ago, I would have said that pacings for the quarter looked “frighteningly bad,” but things are improving. Other stats: For the year, Dow Jones will be down 22 percent. Fox Interactive will down four percent. On movies: A big film will do as well as ever. Library a bit doubtful. But we think there are some things in the works. Thinking about Hulu…and Blu-ray will help too. “There are various things that we believe are going to more than make up for the present slight decline in library titles.” Chernin: “We’re seeing strong titles perform strongly. Particularly with “middle-America-type titles like ‘Marley and Me.’”

Q: Have credit markets loosened up?
CFO DeVoe: Yes. Spreads have contracted. Over last week, the markets are open at attractive prices.
Murdoch: There is a lot of money out there, and we would have no trouble raising one or two billion in public bonds.

Q: Want to buy any additional newspapers?
Murdoch: No.

Q: What’s the outlook for cable, once you’re done jacking up affiliate fees for the likes of Fox News?
Murdoch: Same growth.
Chernin: Some channels still have a lot of growth in them: Big Ten channel, Fox Business, etc.
Murdoch: Yeah! We have 140 channels. The growth of cable and satellite and multichannel television is really only beginning in the rest of the world. And we’ll be riding that.

Q: Are more restructuring charges coming? Why isn’t that in guidance?
Devoe: We really don’t know. What it’s going to be, it’s going to be.
Murdoch: We’ll take about $100 million out of the costs of Dow Jones, and we expect it will be another $100 million by this time next year. Like by linking back office of Dow Jones and New York Post. There will be, and I won’t specify it, but there will be “major cost savings at MySpace.”
Devoe: With regard Dow Jones restructuring, important to note that we planned for that in acquisition.

Q: FIM ad revenue down 16 percent. What’s up with that?
Murdoch: Jon Miller has a lot of ideas. We think we’ll have a much more attractive site for people to visit and stay with and just generate a lot more visits. “We are not going for the Facebook model for bringing hundreds and hundreds of millions of people who don’t bring any advertising with them at all.”
Cherin: MySpace Music coming along. Monetization opportunities just beginning. Some signs that things are improving at MySpace ad sales. A lot of this is marketplace-driven.

Q: On management changes: Rupert, can you handle all this reorg and the absence of Chernin?
Murdoch: Duh.

Q: I assume you have money-losing papers beyond the New York Post.
Murdoch: The only paper that’s in loss is the London Times. And that’s always been the case.

Q: You were so bearish at the cable show a month ago. What’s changed?
Murdoch: “Everybody was in shock by the economy and all business was falling of a cliff in the last three months of last year. Including me.” So we saw the results of ads disappearing in January, February and March. But now they’re coming back. “It’s not back to the old levels. Don’t get me wrong.” Retail is back. Chrysler is advertising – $5 million, I believe. There’s a lot of activity. Not back to the boom days, but “at the very least we seem to have hit the floor.”

Missed Q, but here’s Chernin on piracy: “That’s as big as an act of industrial sabotage that we’ve seen.” In terms of fighting it, there are things that can be done and we are doing it. The “Wolverine” leak was isolated incident, but a “good wake-up call.” Best thing to do is build good alternative business model. That’s Hulu, and that’s other things we’re looking at.

Q: Is the idea to add streaming movies or subscription to Hulu?
Chernin: We already stream movies, but not many. We’re looking at everything. Although I don’t think we’re ready to add subscription yet, although you should talk to Jason Kilar.
Murdoch: Let me stress the importance of Hulu. It’s already the third biggest video site in the country and the only one that collects any real revenue. Very happy with it.

Time for press Q&A:
Q: Can you imagine taking The Wall Street Journal online subscription model to other news sites?
Murdoch: “We’re absolutely looking at that.” You’ll see some stuff “within the next 12 months.”

Q: Hey Peter, what are you going to do after you leave?
Chernin: Now news until July or August.
Murdoch: “I’m very confident Peter will be bringing us a couple of big hits.”

Q: Any plans to spend that $6 billion cash on M&A?
Murdoch: “No. Nothing of any size.” Our best products have been stuff we built ourselves.

Q: When are you going to see digital subscription revenue surpass lost print ad revenue?
Murdoch: “A couple of years.” Looking at a couple things. Charging. Use of mobile readers. “We don’t believe in the business Kindle model,” but it’s significant that people are looking at that for news, and looking at their BlackBerries for news. Lots of way to make money from content over and above advertising. Some of the most advanced companies in the world are looking at reading/mobile devices. We may invest a little bit in one of of them, but we’re neutral. “We’re not appliance makers. There are other great ones in the world.”

Some confusion about a New York Post (owned by News Corp.) story today.

Q: Any thoughts about cost-cutting at local stations because they’re getting hammered?
A: Yes. Making our own news instead of syndication, etc. “We also expect a return to television advertising faster than we see it for newspapers.”

Q: How much can you cut from MySpace to get it profitable?
Murdoch: “It is profitable. We wish to make it really profitable, and we think that’s possible.” But not going into details.

Q: What about buying AOL?
“We’ve never really thought about it, to be honest, perhaps because they’ve always talked about such ridiculous prices.”

This one isn’t quite as momentous as the new blood–and bloodletting–over at Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL, in part because it was more expected.

But in the wake of News Corp. COO Peter Chernin’s departure, Rupert Murdoch is reshuffling the top names at his Fox businesses, which Chernin oversaw.

Murdoch had hinted at this last month when he told the troops that it was “time to streamline” the News Corp. (NWS) operation. (News Corp. is the owner of Dow Jones, which owns this Web site.)

The full memo from Murdoch, explaining the moves, is at the end of this post. But here’s the shorter version:

UP: Jim Gianopulos and Tom Rothman, who formerly ran Murdoch’s Fox movie studio, now oversee both movies and television production.

Rothman, who ran the Fox cable operations, also gets to run Fox’s broadcast operation.

Peter Rice, who ran News Corp.’s faux-indie studio, Fox Searchlight, moves into TV, and will report to Tony Vinciquerra, chairman and CEO of Fox Networks Group.

OUT: Fox broadcasting head Peter Liguori.

STAYING PUT: Roger Ailes continues to run the very successful Fox News Channel, the still-embryonic Fox Business Network and the struggling Fox TV stations group.

Peter Levinsohn, remains the head of Fox Interactive Media, which means that MySpace CEO Chris DeWolfe still reports to him, at least nominally.

NOT MENTIONED: Murdoch’s son, James Murdoch, who runs News Corp.’s Europe assets and is currently the betting favorite to eventually replace his father.

Here’s the full memo:

Dear Colleagues:

Today I’m announcing a series of management changes to our LA-based businesses to ensure we’re well positioned to meet the challenges and opportunities we will face in the coming months. I have been deeply engaged with senior management to develop a renewed model on which to further grow and transform our business. Challenging economic times can yield great advancements and ultimately unleash new, innovative thinking. Ours is a company that has always thrived on change, so it’s with great enthusiasm that I share with you our initial plans for moving forward.

Creative Production

Effective immediately, all of our LA-based creative production businesses will be reporting to Jim Gianopulos and Tom Rothman, co-chairmen and CEOs of Fox Filmed Entertainment. Tom and Jim have built one of the most successful studios in the world, and I have full confidence in their ability to manage our film and television talent in transformative ways. Under this new structure, Gary Newman and Dana Walden, co-chairmen of Twentieth Century Fox Television, will report to Tom and Jim. Emiliano Calemzuk, president, Fox Television Studios, will report to Dana and Gary.

This new creative structure will enable us immediately to operate more efficiently. We will remove unnecessary barriers that have existed between our businesses, thereby better facilitating the sharing of ideas and resources. Not only will we benefit as a business from these changes, but perhaps most importantly, I’m certain our end users–the millions of people around the world who every day enjoy our creative products – will see the benefits as well.

Networks Group

On the television network side of the business, Tony Vinciquerra, chairman and CEO of Fox Networks Group, will continue to head the cable networks, the business aspects of FOX Broadcasting, Fox International Channels, and will gain responsibility for FOX Broadcasting programming. Tony has been instrumental in growing our cable businesses both domestically and internationally, and has been responsible for negotiating many of our landmark carriage and broadcast deals that have made us the leader in broadcast and cable television. As part of this restructuring, Peter Liguori has stepped down as chairman of entertainment, Fox Broadcasting. Under his leadership, FOX was the number one network four years in a row, and I am grateful for his many contributions.

Peter Rice, president of Fox Searchlight, will exit his role at the specialty label and will assume the role of chairman of entertainment, Fox Broadcasting. During his long and successful tenure at Fox Searchlight, Peter has been the driving force behind the success of the specialty film genre, shepherding to the screen some of the industry’s most successful films, including Slumdog Millionaire, Little Miss Sunshine, and Juno. Peter has the vision, creativity and determination to grow and remodel our television network, and I’m delighted he has accepted this new challenge.  In this role, Peter will report directly to Tony Vinciquerra.

With Peter’s departure at Fox Searchlight, Nancy Utley and Steve Gilula will jointly run the business, reporting to Jim and Tom. Nancy and Steve, COOs of Fox Searchlight, who have been Peter’s partners through all of the unit’s great successes, will assume full authority for the business. Claudia Lewis, president of production, remains in place.

Other

Roger Ailes, chairman and CEO of FOX News Channel and Fox Business Network and chairman of the Fox Television Stations and Twentieth Television, and Peter Levinsohn, president of Fox Interactive Media, will continue to report directly to me.

Please join me in congratulating Jim, Tom, Tony and Peter in their new roles.

Looks like all of us were less clever than we thought. Chernin, whose contract as COO expires in June, won’t be staying on. LA Weekly columnist Nikke Finke reported the story first today, and it has since been followed up by The Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times.

News Corp. (NWS) says the Fox studio and TV operations that Chernin ran will report to CEO Rupert Murdoch.

Here’s the official statement from Murdoch:

‘Peter’s contributions to the Company over the past two decades have been immeasurable. He has led important businesses and nurtured talented managers,’ said Mr. Murdoch. ‘We are fortunate to have such a strong and seasoned group of leaders at our Fox companies and we are confident that our success will continue. To that end, Peter and I will work closely over the next four months to ensure an effective transition.’”

Chatter about Chernin’s departure had picked up over the weekend, but even people who were telling us that Chernin was on the way out didn’t seem to believe it. He had a great gig at News Corp., pulling down nearly $29 million a year, and he got to run two of the company’s  best-performing assets: its Hollywood and Internet operations.

No word on who’s going to step into Chernin’s shoes yet, so you can expect plenty of chatter regarding Rupert Murdoch’s complicated family life: He has at least three children — Elisabeth, Lachlan and James — who’ve been in the running to take over for him at one time or another. And his third wife, Wendi, is also a prominent force within News Corp. (News Corp. is the owner of Dow Jones, which owns this Web site.)

What’s next for Chernin? Unclear. He famously has a contract that entitles him to a generous production deal at his former employer’s Fox studio. Included in the deal is a requirement that Fox buy at least two movies a year from Chernin.

But Chernin made no bones about his interest in running News Corp., and his name frequently comes up when other media companies are looking for new management. Most recently, his name was floated as a possible Yahoo (YHOO) CEO. It would be surprising if making movies were enough to keep him occupied for long.

Full text of the press release:

New York, NY- February 23, 2009–News Corporation Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rupert Murdoch today announced that Peter Chernin, the Company’s President and Chief Operating Officer and CEO of the Fox Group, will step down when his contract expires on June 30, 2009. The Los Angeles-based Fox businesses will report directly to Mr. Murdoch upon Mr. Chernin’s departure.

“Peter’s contributions to the Company over the past two decades have been immeasurable. He has led important businesses and nurtured talented managers,” said Mr. Murdoch. “We are fortunate to have such a strong and seasoned group of leaders at our Fox companies and we are confident that our success will continue. To that end, Peter and I will work closely over the next four months to ensure an effective transition.”

“Peter is a valued colleague and a trusted friend. There are few executives, at any company, that combine his maturity, his experience, and his skills as a communicator and leader–I will miss him. It is understandable that at this stage in his life he would want to do something new after serving News Corporation and our shareholders so well for so long.”

Commenting on his departure, Mr. Chernin said: “This was a difficult decision for me. Next week marks my 20th anniversary with News Corporation and the Company has been a huge part of my life. During my years here I have had the great privilege to work for one of the true visionary leaders of our time, Rupert Murdoch. As a leader, Rupert is unparalleled.  He is bold, entrepreneurial, innovative, creative and incredibly supportive. As a partner and friend he has been inspiring, fascinating, and most of all, tremendous fun.

The other great privilege of these years has been to work with all of my colleagues around the world at News Corp. I owe more to them than I can possibly express. Collectively, they represent the best in this industry. They have built great businesses, created new models and redefined existing franchises. Above all, they are individuals of unmatched character and collegiality.

I will miss Rupert and my colleagues deeply. But I have no doubt they will continue to thrive without me.”

Mr. Chernin will launch a Fox-based production company later this year, among other ventures. In addition, he will continue his efforts as Chairman of Malaria No More.

Mr. Chernin, 57, joined News Corporation in 1989 and has served as President and Chief Operating Officer since October, 1996. During his two decades with the Company, Mr. Chernin headed both Twentieth Century Fox Filmed Entertainment and, earlier, the Fox Broadcasting Company.

And who knows? Maybe John Chambers, Steve Ballmer and Brian Roberts will indeed say something important today and tomorrow at Quadrangle’s Foursquare conference. Chrysler’s Robert Nardelli is speaking too. He might have something newsworthy to say.

But you are unlikely to read about it.

That’s because there’s no press allowed at the private equity shop’s annual conference, which starts this afternoon at New York’s Plaza Hotel.

Or rather, there’s some press at the event. But they’ll be on stage. And they won’t be telling their readers and listeners what they saw and heard.

CNBC’s David Faber, Becky Quick and Maria Bartiromo, for instance, will be moderating panels over the next few days. So will the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin. And network TV news bigshots Katie Couric, George Stephanopoulos and Brian Williams will answer questions themselves (Portfolio’s Matt Cooper will be moderating that one).

Am I crabby because I asked (nicely) and couldn’t get in myself? Nah. It’s Quadrangle’s event, and they can run it any way they want. But it does look like a pretty good gathering of worthies. Maybe I’ll park myself in the Plaza’s lobby and see if I can bump into some of them.

Want to join me? Here’s the agenda for next two days:

Tuesday 11/11
2:00 PM WELCOME
Joshua L. Steiner (Quadrangle)

ONE ON ONE WITH JOHN CHAMBERS (Cisco)
Moderated by Jim Citrin (Spencer Stuart)

WHO DO YOU TRUST: INFORMATION AND NEWS IN AN  OPEN WORLD
Tom Glocer (Thomson Reuters), Nancy McKinstry (Wolters Kluwer) and Sheryl Sandberg (Facebook)
Moderated by David Faber (CNBC)

ALL ABOUT WIRELESS
Jean-Bernard Lévy (Vivendi), Naguib Sawiris (Orascom Telecom) and Ben Wolff (Clearwire)
Moderated by Steven Rattner

4:15 PM BREAK

GOING IT ALONE IN AN INTERCONNECTED WORLD
Philippe Dauman (Viacom), Charlie Ergen (EchoStar) and Robert Kotick (Activision)
Moderated by Becky Quick (CNBC)

GLOBAL E-COMMERCE: $500 BILLION AND GROWING
Barry Diller (IAC) and Hiroshi Mikitani (Rakuten)
Moderated by Steve Hasker (McKinsey)

6:15 PM COCKTAIL RECEPTION
Grand Ballroom Foyer
The Plaza

Wednesday 11/12
8:30 AM WELCOME
ONE ON ONE WITH STEVE BALLMER (Microsoft)
Moderated by Ken Auletta (The New Yorker)

INNOVATION AND THE NEXT BIG IDEA
Jean-François Decaux (JC Decaux) Robert Stephens (Geek Squad founder?) and Jim Wiatt (William Morris)
Moderated by Andrew Ross Sorkin (New York Times)

A CONVERSATION WITH SAM ZELL (Equity Group, Tribune Co.)
Moderated by Joanne Lipman (Portfolio)

10:00 AM BREAK

COOP-ER-TITION: A CONVERSATION WITH PETER CHERNIN (News Corp.) AND BRIAN ROBERTS (Comcast)
Moderated by Ken Auletta

REBUILDING A BRAND FROM THE TOP DOWN
Dan Hesse (Sprint) and Robert Nardelli (Chrysler)
Moderated by Maria Bartiromo

NOON Concluding Luncheon
CAMPAIGN 2008: IN FRONT OF THE CAMERA AND BEHIND THE SCENES
Katie Couric (CBS), George Stephanopoulos (ABC) and Brian Williams (NBC)
Moderated by Matt Cooper (Portfolio)

[Image Credit: PinkMoose]

What changed? According to News Corp.:

• The U.S. dollar has gotten stronger, which makes the performance of the company’s many businesses  less valuable.
• The markets for local TV advertising in the U.S. and newspapers around the world are awful.
• The overall economy is lousy.

And yes, that lousy economy is going to affect the Web, too. (News Corp., owner of Dow Jones, is also the owner of this Web site.)

News Corp.’s Fox Interactive Media unit (basically MySpace and a few other sites) recorded a 17 percent gain, driven by a 16 percent jump in display advertising. Those are fine numbers given the performance of other big Web players–just ask Yahoo (YHOO) or Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL–but they’re down from 57 percent growth in the last quarter. And they’re not going to let the unit hit the 30 percent growth goal the company laid out this summer. Asked to throw out a new target, COO Peter Chernin demurred.

Instead he described the business in general terms: Starting to hurt, but not as much as the competition. Transcript from Seeking Alpha:

We started off this quarter also feeling good. We are beginning to be honest to see some softening at the end of this calendar year and looking into the first couple of quarters, the beginning next year.

I still believe that we’re doing slightly better than the marketplace. But it’s clear from everybody else that there is a lot of softening in the display advertising marketplace and we are beginning to feel some of that. So I think still from our own sort of anecdotal appraisal of the business, we are pleased with the progress they are making.

We think a lot of areas, the launch of MySpace Music, the launching of SelfServe Ads, the increase in the quality and number of advertisers etcetera. We are pleased with their progress, but we are just beginning sort of December and then moving into January to begin to see some of the softness in the marketplace catch up to us.”

Attention New York publishers and advertisers!!!

Those people pestering you to vote for “Roi Asap” today? They’re not working for a real candidate!

This warning comes to you from a MySpace worker bee, who is up in arms about a promotional stunt from the MySpace ad sales team.

“Roi,” you see, is a semi-clever pun based on a term MySpace ad chief Jeff Berman used in a press release promoting the targeting technology last month (as in, “Return On Investment”).

MySpace is supposed to hire dozens of fake campaign workers to push Roi/advertising targeting today at midtown offices in Manhattan.

I don’t see the problem here. But the MySpace employee thinks the fake vote-soliciting is “ridiculous” and wants it “exposed.” Okay, done.

More interesting will be quarterly earnings call from MySpace owner, News Corp., on Wednesday afternoon, and what CEO Rupert Murdoch has to say about his prize Web property’s recent performance.

News Corp. (NWS) earnings calls are always entertaining, but Wednesday’s call should be more intriguing than most. It will be the first time Murdoch has sounded off in a public forum, since the economy went into free-fall.

Murdoch had already sounded the alarm bells last spring. And, at the D: All Things Digital conference in May, he predicted that the U.S. would be in an 18-month recession.

More recently, during the company’s August earnings call, he said that local television ads had fallen off a cliff. (News Corp., owner of Dow Jones, is also the owner of this Web site.)

But even as Murdoch has predicted gloomy times for some of his company’s assets, he and his execs have talked up the prospects of MySpace. During the last call, News Corp. COO Peter Chernin said Fox Interactive Media, the News Corp. Web unit dominated by MySpace, would be able to increase revenues by 30 percent during the coming year.

Predicting FIM revenues has proved tricky for News Corp., which had to publicly back down last spring from a promise it had made in the summer of 2007. And now that Web advertisers are finally admitting that they’re seeing weakness, that 30 percent may be difficult to achieve too.

Given that the year-ago quarter was underwhelming, and that the last quarter covers the July to September period–most of which was catastrophe-free–there’s a good chance FIM will report in-line ad sales on Wednesday.

But pay attention to whether Murdoch and Chernin are able to reiterate past projections for the rest of the year.

I’m told that the ad-targeting technology MySpace is pushing is indeed boosting revenue at the site. And the video plans the company announced yesterday are interesting as well: An automated ID program will let publishers like Viacom (VIA) unit MTV Networks automatically place ads on user-uploaded content that they own.

Google’s (GOOG) YouTube announced something similar earlier this year.

But those programs only work at the margins of MySpace’s business, and are long-term plays. The most important part is getting big advertisers to buy big campaigns on MySpace’s prime real estate.

Such as its homepage, where a one-day campaign was going for an average of $500,000 earlier this year, and where particularly intrusive campaigns could garner $1,000,000 for 24 hours.

If those rates are softening, then it won’t matter how innovative the company is in the near term: It’s going to have to reset expectations.