There was just a glimmer of news at the event, though it wasn’t surprising or pleasant: The Times’s Web business is falling away, day by day.

Digital head Martin Nisenholtz said revenue at his unit had been OK until the last two months of the year, but that there had been “softness in November, accelerating into December…next year is going to be a different year, by a fairly profound margin.”

Bear in mind that the Times’s digital performance pre-November was grim to begin with–digital revenue grew just 4.3 percent in October–and it becomes possible to imagine that digital revenue will decrease for at least part of 2009.

Nisenholtz didn’t do anything rash like attach any numbers to his comments, but he did add a little bit of color: His About.com unit, which is boosted by cost-per-click/search ads, is still doing OK-ish. But the business of selling display ads to Times Web sites is getting pummeled, and could be “under great stress” next year, he says.

So if About.com is doing (comparatively) well, why not sell that asset to help the paper escape its cash crunch? I asked CEO Janet Robinson that question after the event. She did everything but insist that the paper would never part with About.com, and praised it up and down–“an extremely important part of our digital future,” etc.

But given a couple chances to do so, she never explicitly ruled out a sale. Given the paper’s position, I don’t think she can.

[Image Credit: 1962 NYC Newspaper Strike photo from Life/Google archive)

The details, via a release:

• October, which was terrible, was better than November: “In November, the rate of change in advertising revenue declined from what we saw in October. The entertainment, real estate and automotive advertising categories were especially soft.”
• That $400 million credit line that expires in May? Don’t worry about it: “We have no intention or need of fully replacing the $400 million credit facility expiring next year because our total borrowing under both agreements is projected to be significantly less than $800 million, and currently is approximately $400 million.”
• And that $225 million we might raise by mortgaging our HQ? That’s not a fire sale: “The proceeds will be used to repay existing long-term debt. The building provides a unique opportunity for us to borrow at attractive rates in today’s market.”
  
• Also, would anyone like to invest in our company and/or lend us money? “We are also looking at various other financing alternatives, including revolvers, public offerings or private placements. While the credit markets remain challenging, we expect to secure the financing necessary to meet our maturities when they come due”
• This won’t shock you, but we are going to spend a lot less money on things that aren’t people, paper or ink next year: Capital expenditures will drop from $140 million in 2008 to $80 million in 2009.
  

Oh, and 2008 was pretty crummy, too: Total U.S. advertising spend increased by…almost nothing, he says. Technically, that’s an increase of 0.1 percent.

For 2009:

Total U.S. advertising: Down 4.5 percent

U.S. advertising: Up five percent–note that this number excludes search.

Overseas advertising: Up 2.7 percent

Total worldwide advertising: Down 0.3 percent

Bear in mind, as The Wall Street Journal’s Emily Steel points out, that these numbers are more optimistic than Wall Street’s estimates.

ZenithOptimedia, the media-buying agency owned by ad giant Publicis Groupe, is lowering its 2009 forecast for North American ad spending. It figures spending will drop 5.7 percent in the North America (down 6.2 percent in the U.S.) next year; it had previously forecast an increase of 0.9 percent.

Meanwhile GroupM, the media-buying agency owned by ad giant WPP, says U.S. ad spending will decrease three percent next year.

Not coincidentally, executives from both companies will be presenting at the same 8 a.m. panel this morning at the UBS media conference, which kicks off today and runs through Wednesday. Ad giant Interpublic Group (IPG), which is also sending an emissary to said panel, will roll out its predictions at the event.

Fear not, MediaMemo readers: I will be there, and will dutifully report any glum prognostications. UPDATE: Here they are: IPG predicts U.S. ads down 4.5 percent.

UPDATE: A little more detail, courtesy MediaPost; full report now available here. Zenith predicts online advertising will increase 10 percent next year, down from 22 percent in 2008. It doesn’t have a breakdown of the spend, but safe to assume that search will take the lion’s share, which is great for Google (GOOG), and not much help to anyone else.

[Image Credit: sherlockonline]